The Question Before Us
Belarus holds elections. Candidates appear on ballots. Votes are counted — after a fashion. The results, reliably, return the same party to power. State media frames every outcome as the will of the people. Dissenters are marginalized, prosecuted, or simply ignored. The machinery of democracy is present; its substance has been hollowed out.
California is not Belarus. But the question is no longer frivolous: is the nation’s most populous state drifting toward a form of single-party governance in which elections are conducted but outcomes are structurally predetermined? Consider the evidence. The Democratic Party has held the governorship for all but eight of the past twenty-seven years. It has held supermajority control of the state legislature for most of the past two decades — meaning it can pass any law, override any veto, and place any measure on the ballot without a single Republican vote. It controls every statewide office. The state’s major media institutions, its public universities, its public employee unions, and its regulatory apparatus are all aligned with a single political tendency. A ballot initiative system designed to give citizens a check on the legislature has been steadily narrowed by court rulings and legislative counter-maneuvers.
The mechanisms of control in a one-party state are rarely crude. They operate through funding, through bureaucracy, through the definition of what is and is not permissible public speech, through the slow capture of institutions that were once independent. California has not arrived at Belarus. But the direction of travel matters as much as the current position. And what happens in the 2026 primary and general election — specifically, whether a Republican can break through in the governor’s race and whether an insurgent outsider like Spencer Pratt can survive a counting process that has raised pointed questions — will tell us something important about whether genuine electoral competition still exists in this state.
As of Friday evening, June 6, with 65–71% of expected votes tallied: Democrat Xavier Becerra has overtaken Republican Steve Hilton in the governor’s race, leading 26.7% to 26.4% and projected by the AP and NBC News to advance to November. In Los Angeles, incumbent Karen Bass holds first place at 35%, while Spencer Pratt holds second at 28.2% over Councilmember Nithya Raman at 24.9% — a lead that has compressed from 10 points on election night to under 4 points, with the race still uncalled. Just over 23% of registered voters cast ballots — among the lowest primary turnout figures in recent California history.
The Governor’s Race
California uses a “top-two” primary system: regardless of party, the top two vote-getters advance to November. Of the 61 candidates who qualified, the race has come down to three: Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer. Hilton led from election night through Thursday on the strength of in-person and early mail votes, but Becerra — who was polling in single digits just four months ago before receiving a boost from Democrat Eric Swalwell’s exit following misconduct allegations — overtook him in a Friday evening ballot drop. With 65% counted, Becerra holds 26.7%, Hilton 26.4%, and Steyer 21%. The AP and NBC News have projected Becerra advances; neither has yet projected his opponent. Steyer, who poured $215 million of his own money into his campaign, has not conceded. Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Katie Porter all conceded on election night; Chad Bianco finished at approximately 11%.
The Democrats
Xavier Becerra
Background: Born in Sacramento to a Mexican immigrant family. Law degree from Stanford. Represented Los Angeles in Congress for more than two decades before serving as California’s Attorney General from 2017, where he led numerous lawsuits against the first Trump administration. Served as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden — the first Latino to hold that role — overseeing the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Was polling in single digits as recently as February 2026 before surging to the front of the field.
Religion: Roman Catholic. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops cited his positions on abortion as disqualifying him from receiving Communion. He represents the broad pattern of prominent Democratic politicians who identify as Catholic while maintaining positions at odds with Church teaching on life.
Platform: Building more housing, expanding healthcare, declaring a state of emergency to freeze utility and insurance rates, and revising climate goals to keep fuel more affordable for middle-class Californians.
Tom Steyer
Background: Billionaire hedge fund manager turned political activist who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on progressive causes and Democratic campaigns. Previously ran for president in 2020. Self-funded his 2026 gubernatorial campaign to the tune of $215 million — the most expensive self-funded state campaign in American history. Despite the spending, he has not been able to break past Becerra and Hilton in the count.
Religion: Not prominently stated in his campaign.
Platform: Aggressive climate action, single-payer healthcare, progressive economic redistribution. The most ideologically left of the top-tier candidates.
Katie Porter
Background: Harvard Law graduate, professor of consumer law at UC Irvine, two-term congresswoman from a historically Republican Orange County district. Known for her whiteboard questioning style in committee hearings. Conceded on election night.
Religion: Not publicly stated.
The Republicans
Steve Hilton
Background: British-born, newly naturalized American citizen. Senior adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. Moved to California in 2012 and co-founded a Silicon Valley political crowdfunding platform. Hosted The Next Revolution on Fox News from 2017 to 2023. Endorsed by President Donald Trump. Led the field from election night until being overtaken by Becerra in mail-ballot drops on Friday.
Religion: Not prominently identified. His worldview is shaped by populist-conservative politics rather than explicit religious framing.
Platform: “Three-dollar gas” by suspending environmental regulations; cutting income taxes including making the first $100,000 tax-free; opening natural spaces for housing; rolling back progressive regulations. Told supporters in Huntington Beach: “Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue.”
Chad Bianco
Background: Lifelong law enforcement officer, elected Riverside County Sheriff. A self-described constitutional conservative who publicly refused to enforce certain COVID-era mandates. Had the most credible grassroots conservative base of any candidate but was hampered by Trump’s endorsement of Hilton.
Religion: Professing Christian. Has spoken of his oath and his law enforcement career in terms of faith and calling.
Governor’s Race — Comparison
| Category | Xavier Becerra (D) | Steve Hilton (R) | Chad Bianco (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | Progressive centrist | Populist conservative | Constitutional conservative |
| Background | Attorney, Congressman, AG, HHS Secretary | British political adviser, media commentator | Career law enforcement; county sheriff |
| Religion | Roman Catholic (pro-abortion positions conflict with Church) | Not prominently stated | Christian (faith-informed constitutionalism) |
| Key Endorsement | Biden administration; California Democratic establishment | President Donald Trump | Conservative grassroots; rural California |
| June 2 Result (65% counted, June 6) |
26.7% — projected to advance (AP, NBC News) | 26.4% — ~8,770 votes behind Becerra; fighting to hold 2nd over Steyer | ~11% — eliminated; conceded election night |
The Los Angeles Mayor’s Race
Los Angeles holds nonpartisan mayoral elections. With 71% of expected votes counted as of Friday evening, Karen Bass leads at 35% (first place locked), Spencer Pratt holds second at 28.2%, and Nithya Raman has climbed to 24.9%. The gap between Pratt and Raman has compressed from approximately 10 points on election night to under 4 points now, as late mail ballots — which skew toward urban progressive voters — have favored Raman with every drop. Pratt’s absolute vote count stood at approximately 163,500 with an estimated 250,000–300,000 ballots still remaining. Prediction markets on Kalshi showed Pratt at 54–75% to advance, though those odds have been tightening. ABC News has projected Bass advances but has not projected her opponent. This is the first time in 21 years that a sitting Los Angeles mayor has failed to secure a primary majority.
Karen Bass
Background: Born October 3, 1953, in Los Angeles. Trained as a physician assistant at USC. Co-founded the Community Coalition in South LA in 1990. Elected to the California State Assembly in 2004, became Assembly Speaker in 2008 — the first African American woman to lead a state legislative body in American history. U.S. Representative from 2010 until elected mayor of Los Angeles in 2022, becoming the city’s first female and second African American mayor.
Religion: Christian (Baptist). Has identified as a Christian throughout her public life.
Controversy: Was in Cuba at the invitation of the Cuban government when the Palisades Fire broke out in January 2025, destroying over 16,000 structures. Her delayed return and questions about fire preparedness have been the central issue of the race. She has pointed to a claimed 17.5% decline in homelessness under her tenure, a figure sharply disputed by critics.
Spencer Pratt
Background: Born August 14, 1983, in Los Angeles. Studied political science at USC. Rose to fame on MTV’s The Hills beginning in 2006. Lost his Pacific Palisades home in the January 2025 fire and joined a lawsuit against the City of Los Angeles and the Department of Water and Power. Launched his mayoral campaign on January 7, 2026 at the “They Let Us Burn” protest in Pacific Palisades. Confirmed as a registered Republican but pledged to govern without party loyalties. Endorsed by Steve Hilton and Richard Grenell.
Religion: Professing Christian. Baptized by actor Stephen Baldwin in 2009. He and wife Heidi Montag have spoken openly about faith and prayer as central to their family life. When asked on CNN who his political role model is, Pratt answered: “Jesus Christ.”
Platform: Fire preparedness reform; mandatory treatment for severe addiction and mental illness under California’s SB 43; LAPD officers at every school; cutting the cost of doing business; accountability for the Palisades Fire failures.
Los Angeles Mayor — Comparison
| Category | Karen Bass (Incumbent) | Spencer Pratt (Challenger) |
|---|---|---|
| Background | Physician assistant, community organizer, Assembly Speaker, Congresswoman, Mayor | USC political science, reality TV personality, fire victim, plaintiff vs. city |
| Religion | Christian (Baptist) | Christian (baptized 2009; names Jesus Christ as political role model) |
| Palisades Fire | Was in Cuba; delayed return; defends city response | Lost his home; calls response “criminal negligence”; party to lawsuit vs. city |
| Homelessness | Claims 17.5% decline; housing-first, services-based approach | Calls decline figures disputed; mandatory treatment via SB 43 |
| June 2 Result (71% counted, June 6) |
35% — 1st place locked; advancing to November (ABC News projected) | 28.2% — currently 2nd; leads Raman (24.9%) by under 4 points; race uncalled |
Counting Anomalies & Unanswered Questions
As the slow count continues, several observations have drawn scrutiny from election watchers and commentators.
Pratt’s Zero Votes in a 24,000-Ballot Drop
The most striking anomaly of the count came during the move from 39.3% to 42.4% of ballots reported on election night. X account @C_3C_3, tracking the LA County Registrar’s updates in real time, documented that the ballot drop representing that 3.1-point jump — roughly 24,000 votes — credited Spencer Pratt with exactly zero new votes. Not a handful. Not a rounding error. Zero. Every vote in that batch went to other candidates. An independent analysis confirmed it: “The batch claim matches real-time reporting: In updates from the LA County Registrar during the June 2, 2026 LA mayoral primary, one late ballot drop of roughly 24,000 votes showed no additional votes for Spencer Pratt, while others gained — fueling the viral post.”
For context: Pratt was at approximately 28–30% of the vote at that point. A candidate receiving zero votes out of 24,000 ballots — in a citywide race where he had demonstrated support across the Westside, the Valley, and fire-affected communities — is a statistical result that warrants a clear public explanation. What specific precinct, drop box location, or ballot category did this drop represent? The LA County Registrar has not offered one.
Orange County: A Black Hole in the Count
Orange County — California’s most reliably Republican large county and home to over 1.8 million registered voters — is a major wild card in the governor’s race. As of June 4, nobody could say with precision how many of Orange County’s ballots had actually been counted and reported. The California Secretary of State’s results page showed all 2,367 precincts as “partially reporting” — a status that gives no indication of actual completion percentage. The preliminary estimate of outstanding ballots in Orange County stood at 270,900 vote-by-mail and provisional ballots still to be processed, with tallies released so far representing only about 40% of registered voters. Orange County is Hilton’s strongest territory. How its remaining votes break will directly affect whether Hilton can hold second place over Steyer.
Note on Transparency: California’s mail-ballot system is legal and the extended counting timeline is established in state law. But design that precludes transparency is not the same as trustworthy administration. When large batches of ballots arrive with results that are statistically implausible on their face, the responsible response from election officials is immediate and detailed public accounting — not silence. In a healthy republic, registrars explain ballot drops. In California in 2026, the silence from official quarters has been complete.
Thirty Years of Democratic California: The Record
Since Gray Davis won the governorship in 1998, California has been governed by Democrats for all but eight years (Arnold Schwarzenegger, 2003–2011). The state legislature has been under Democratic supermajority control for most of the past two decades. Any honest assessment of California’s present condition must reckon with this record.
Poverty
California ranks first in the nation in poverty when cost of living is factored in. The Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure places California’s poverty rate at approximately 17.7–18.9%, with nearly 7 million residents classified as poor. The Public Policy Institute of California found 31.1% of Californians — nearly one in three — living in or near poverty as recently as 2023. More than half of this group is Latino; 13.6% is Black.
Homelessness
California is home to approximately 28–30% of the entire nation’s homeless population despite holding only about 12% of its residents. The state counted over 172,000–181,000 homeless individuals in recent point-in-time counts. Since 2019, California has spent approximately $24 billion on homelessness programs — and during that same period the homeless population increased by roughly 30,000 people. The Hoover Institution calculated this as the equivalent of $160,000 spent per homeless person with no net reduction.
“Since 2019, California has spent about $24 billion on homelessness — and in this five-year period, homelessness increased by about 30,000.”
— Hoover Institution, July 2024Housing and Cost of Living
California ranks 49th among all states in housing units per capita. Only about 20% of California households can afford the median-priced home, which now exceeds $600,000. The median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Bay Area exceeds $3,000 — more than twice the national average. California ranks 49th in the Tax Foundation’s Business Tax Climate Index, with a top income tax rate of 12.3%.
The Exodus
For the sixth consecutive year (2025), California recorded the largest outmigration of any state in the nation according to the U-Haul Growth Index. The Census Bureau documented approximately 239,000 more people leaving California for other states than arriving from them in 2023–2024. Los Angeles County alone lost 53,421 residents between July 2024 and July 2025 — the largest county-level population decline in the United States. Companies that have departed include Tesla, Chevron, Oracle, In-N-Out Burger, and Realtor.com. The state entered 2026 facing a projected budget deficit of $50–70 billion, having swung from a $97 billion surplus in 2021–2022. Approximately 75% of California K–12 students do not meet federal proficiency standards despite the state spending roughly $128 billion annually on education.
Is California Becoming Belarus? A Word to Christian Readers
The comparison to Belarus is not made lightly, nor is it made to suggest that California’s government is tyrannical in the way of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime. The point is more precise: Belarus represents the end state of a process — the gradual concentration of political power in a single party or faction, enforced not primarily by violence but by the control of institutions, media, bureaucracy, and the rules of political competition itself. A state can travel a considerable distance down that road before the resemblance becomes undeniable.
California’s Democratic Party does not need to rig elections in the crude sense. It does not need to. When one party controls all levers of state government, dominates the public employee unions that fund campaigns, shapes the curricula in which the next generation of voters is educated, sets the regulatory conditions under which businesses and churches must operate, and draws the district boundaries within which elections are contested — the outcome of most elections is largely settled before a single ballot is cast. The primary system itself illustrates the point: in a state of 39 million people with nominal two-party competition, the most consequential question in the 2026 governor’s primary was not which vision would win, but whether a Republican — any Republican — could survive long enough to appear on the November ballot. That is a question more appropriate to a managed democracy than a free one.
The Scripture speaks plainly to this condition. “When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice: but when the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn” (Proverbs 29:2). “Righteousness exalteth a nation: but sin is a reproach to any people” (Proverbs 14:34). A government that has presided over thirty years of rising poverty, metastasizing homelessness, collapsing schools, and the flight of millions of its citizens has not merely failed administratively. It has violated a moral order. And a political system that makes it structurally difficult to remove such a government — that insulates failure from consequence through institutional capture — has drifted far from the principles of accountable governance that the Founders understood to be grounded in the nature of fallen man.
This primary may clarify the question. If Hilton survives the mail-ballot count and faces Becerra in November, California will have a genuine choice. If the count continues as it has been trending — if Hilton is gradually overwhelmed by mail ballots, if Pratt’s lead continues to compress until it disappears — the pattern will speak for itself. And if November produces another election in which the Democratic candidate wins regardless of the state’s objective record, then the answer to the question posed by this article will be harder to avoid.
We commend California — its Christians, its suffering poor, its fleeing families, and yes, its entrenched political class — to the sovereign mercy of God, Who raises up rulers and brings them low according to His own counsel. And we commend these matters to the prayer of our readers. For additional election coverage and analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=4g_80nkW1M4.
Sources: CalMatters, Hoover Institution, U.S. Census Bureau / PPIC, Tax Foundation, U-Haul Growth Index, Ballotpedia, ABC7 Los Angeles, ABC News / AP, NBC News, NBC Los Angeles, CBS News Los Angeles, LAist, The Hill, KTLA, CNN, KQED, Newsweek, People, Beliefnet, City of Los Angeles, California Department of Finance, California Secretary of State, Kalshi prediction markets, @C_3C_3 on X. Election results reflect counts as of Friday evening, June 6, 2026 (65–71% of expected votes tallied). Final certified results due to California Secretary of State by July 3, 2026; official certification by July 10, 2026.